El Niño 2026-2027: What Authorities Say and How to Prepare Your Home
What NOAA, Peru's ENFEN and Ecuador's authorities say about El Niño 2026-2027, and a 5-step plan for your home: walk through, repair, protect, agree and rehearse.
We wrote this on October 23, 2026. Forecasts are updated every month, so use this guide to understand the picture and always check your country's authorities for the latest.
What we know today
- NOAA (United States): the alert system is at "El Niño Advisory." Its October 8 update says a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027, with a probability above 83%. It also keeps high odds of a historic event: 83% for October-December.
- ENFEN (Peru): keeps the Coastal El Niño alert, the abnormal warming of the sea off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, and in statement 16-2026 expects an extraordinary magnitude between September 2026 and autumn 2027.
- Ecuador: on August 29, 2026 the Emergency Operations Committee declared a red alert. Authorities clarified that it "does not mean immediate heavy rain." The national risk management secretariat has said the strongest rains could arrive from December, and that the rainy season runs from December to May, most intensely between January and May.
One detail NOAA repeats: a strong event raises the odds of El Niño's typical effects, but it does not guarantee them. Preparing is not panicking. It is deciding what you do while there is still time.
The right question
It is easy to get stuck on "how much rain will fall?" You cannot control that. The question you can answer is a different one: what do I do before the water arrives? A forum at the UEES engineering school in Ecuador framed it that way in October, and it struck us as the best starting point.
A 5-step plan for your home
- Walk through. Follow the path water takes through your house: roof, gutters, downspouts and drains. Here is the step-by-step guide.
- Repair. Clean gutters, seal cracks and fix leaks now, while the sky is clear.
- Protect. Lift off the floor what must not get wet (electrical panel, appliances, equipment) and keep documents in sealed plastic bags. FEMA recommends elevating and anchoring utility equipment, and having a professional do it.
- Agree. Decide who helps whom: who takes the baby or the older relative, who takes the pet, where you meet and who you call. If you have no plan yet, start with the family emergency plan.
- Rehearse. Walk your evacuation route once, before the streets flood, and have your 72-hour bag ready.
Before, during and after
- Before: know your routes and meeting points, save important contacts and follow only official channels: the risk management secretariat, INAMHI and 911.
- During: go to a safe, elevated place, follow the authorities' instructions, do not cross moving water and stay away from downed power lines.
- After: report damage, take care of water and food and control mosquito breeding sites.
Your pantry: what you do control
- Water: the Church's guide suggests planning 4 liters (1 gallon) per person per day and storing at least three days' worth. More if you can. Here is how much water to store per person.
- Food: a reserve of what you already eat that covers at least a week is a good first step. Keep it on high shelves, away from the floor, and rotate it with the FIFO method.
- Light and communication: a flashlight, a battery radio, spare batteries and a charged power bank.
A note of honesty
Despendo does not predict the weather or replace the authorities. What it does is help you know what you have, how many days it lasts and what is missing, so that when the official notice comes you are not starting from zero.
Sources and further reading
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, October 8, 2026
- Canal N: ENFEN official statement No. 16-2026 on Coastal El Niño (in Spanish)
- Primicias: Ecuador on red alert for El Niño, August 2026 (in Spanish)
- Primicias: the red alert "does not mean immediate heavy rain" (in Spanish)
- Primicias: interview with Ecuador's national risk management secretary (in Spanish)
- Vistazo: 10 tips from UNICEF and the risk management secretariat (in Spanish)
- FEMA: Protect Your Property From Flooding (PDF)
- The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints: Preparedness guide (Spanish PDF)
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